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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-19 07:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 24.4, -57.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 27A
2020-09-19 07:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late Sunday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 05:23:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 04:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:59:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:59:52 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-09-19 04:59:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However, Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model consensus. Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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