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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 31

2020-09-20 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Sunday. A turn toward the north is expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday night. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field is likely to become even larger over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 31

2020-09-20 04:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 417 WTNT25 KNHC 200252 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 220SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-20 01:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 23:52:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 21:25:40 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-20 01:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARGE TEDDY CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 27.0, -60.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 30A

2020-09-20 01:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192348 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...LARGE TEDDY CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 60.9W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 60.9 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into early Sunday. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a faster northward motion early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday, and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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