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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Teddy was located near 24.0, -57.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 27

2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 190257 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 23(47) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 14(63) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 16(66) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 4(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 5(67) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 2(35) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 12(49) X(49) X(49) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-09-19 04:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 57.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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