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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 59.0W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 191450 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 11(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 12(44) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 9(45) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 2(47) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 4(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 34(64) 1(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 34(50) X(50) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 13:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 11:42:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:25:41 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-19 13:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 25.5, -58.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 28A
2020-09-19 13:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191141 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 58.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially at the same time. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda and beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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