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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-09-15 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 50.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 50.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 45.6N 39.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 51.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 50.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-15 11:12:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 08:35:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 09:07:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-09-15 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150835 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 Ian continues to have a structure somewhat resembling a subtropical cyclone, with the low-level center situated beneath an upper-level low and a cloud pattern featuring a broken band of convection. However, there is still some moderate to deep convection not too far from the center, and the most recent AMSU pass still showed a deep warm core structure. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest satellite classification of ST3.5 from TAFB. Ian is running out of time to strengthen via diabatic processes, and most of the strengthening shown here is expected to be due to baroclinic effects, especially given the current convective structure. By 24 hours, strong shear and cool SSTs should result in Ian being post-tropical, and the cyclone should be fully extratropical by 36 hours. The intensity forecast is based mainly on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center, and shows the post-tropical cyclone intensifying to near hurricane strength before it's absorbed by a larger extratropical low in 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 025/17. Ian should accelerate northeastward ahead of a large upper-level trough moving eastward across the northwestern Atlantic during the next 36 hours before being absorbed. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a partial ASCAT pass from around 0100 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 35.5N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.3N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 43.0N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 49.1N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-15 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of IAN was located near 35.5, -52.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 12
2016-09-15 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...IAN ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 52.4W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected today, followed by a further increase in forward speed tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ian is expected to remain a powerful cyclone while it loses tropical characteristics by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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