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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 11
2016-09-15 04:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...IAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 53.4W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 53.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but Ian is expected to lose its tropical characteristics on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-09-15 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 150245 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-14 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:33:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-14 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142033 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Ian does not look much like a tropical storm this afternoon with all of its convection well removed from a rather broad and disorganized low-level circulation. In fact, Ian has some subtropical characteristics, including its collocation with an upper-level low and a large radius of maximum wind. However, these features could be temporary. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on continuity. An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 350/15. Ian should be steered northward and northeastward during the next day or so as it moves around the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic Canada. Similar to the previous advisory, a slight westward shift in the official track forecast was required mostly due to the updated initial position. Otherwise, the forecast is a bit faster than the model consensus. Ian does not have much time left to intensify as a tropical cyclone since it should move over colder waters by tomorrow evening. It does have a narrow window of lower shear during the next day, although given its current poor organization and structure, no significant intensification is forecast during that time. Ian is then expected to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours and be absorbed by another extratropical low by 72 hours. The only significant change to the intensity forecast is for a stronger extratropical phase, but not quite as strong as the 12 UTC GFS solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 34.8N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 42.7N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 49.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-09-14 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 142033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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