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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 07:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF EARL APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.3, -92.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-05 05:09:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 02:51:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 03:05:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-05 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050246 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Somewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity this evening. Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind gust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Since the forecast track takes the center along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the next 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength on Friday. Based on the new official intensity forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. In 36 hours or so, the center of Earl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the system is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours. Earl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt. A large mid-level ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a continued west-northwestward to westward motion through the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the most recent multi-model consensus. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.4N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 18.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-05 04:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 050246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 13(13) 12(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 the center of EARL was located near 18.1, -91.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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