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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 11
2016-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 91.7W ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SSE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern Gulf coast of Mexico from Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 91.7 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Weakening is expected on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WESTWARD TO LAGUNA VERDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WESTWARD TO LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 91.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 91.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.4N 93.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-05 02:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Aug 2016 00:00:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 21:05:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-05 01:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 the center of EARL was located near 18.0, -91.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 10A
2016-08-05 01:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042357 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 91.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located inland over southeastern Mexico near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 91.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will continue to move into southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Ciudad del Carmen recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few hours in a small area near and north of the center as it moves through portions of southeastern Mexico. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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