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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-04 13:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 11:48:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 09:04:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 8A
2016-08-04 13:45:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 89.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings. The Government of Belize has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the coast of Belize. Interests along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, Earl is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today, and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight or Friday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the coast of Belize, but should gradually subside. These conditions should spread over northern Guatemala this morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should continue to subside today as the center of Earl moves farther inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane EARL Graphics
2016-08-04 11:08:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 08:57:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 09:04:36 GMT
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Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-04 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040854 TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City, Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land. The initial motion is 275/13. A high pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days or so. There is some spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over water. The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the center over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche. The new forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the center traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours. Overall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies near the various consensus models. Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It should be noted that several global models forecast the development of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of Earl. The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 17.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 18.6N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 19.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-08-04 10:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 040853 PWSAT5 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) FRONTERA MX 34 2 21(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BELIZE CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BELIZE CITY 64 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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