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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 19:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NOVA SCOTIA WHILE TEDDY ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 32.2, -62.0 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 37A
2020-09-21 19:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211759 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NOVA SCOTIA WHILE TEDDY ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 62.0W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of Nova Scotia from Meat Cove westward to Digby, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and the southwest coast of Newfoundland from Port aux Basques to Francois. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of Nova Scotia from Meat Cove to Digby * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located from satellite imagery and Bermuda radar near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight and north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and decelerate as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 37
2020-09-21 16:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211454 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Teddy has weakened some since yesterday. While the maximum 700-mb winds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend of these data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddy gives an initial wind speed of 80 kt. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast as the long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone. All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy will benefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximum winds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream. Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the new intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model. Afterward, the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should move north of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete its post-tropical transition. The cyclone should weaken while it accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4 days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts of tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island, and tropical storm conditions could continue today. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 31.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 34.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 38.2N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 40.7N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 43.7N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0000Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z 51.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-21 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:53:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:53:57 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 16:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY'S HUGE WAVE FIELD EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 31.1, -62.7 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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