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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 07:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 29.7, -63.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 35A
2020-09-21 07:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210539 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 63.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Watch east from Canso to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 63.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system. Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the center of Teddy recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-21 04:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:53:17 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-09-21 04:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210251 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory. There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however, increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest, should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time. Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week. The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a bias-corrected average of the global and regional models. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt. The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model guidance. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning overnight and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 29.4N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 04:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 29.4, -63.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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