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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2020-09-21 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 210842 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 68(70) X(70) X(70) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 57(71) X(71) X(71) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 60(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 23(65) X(65) X(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 22(76) X(76) X(76) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) X(39) X(39) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) X(27) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BERMUDA 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 30.3, -63.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 36
2020-09-21 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210841 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 63.2W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 36
2020-09-21 10:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210841 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO MAIN-A-DIEU NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 63.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 330SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 63.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 63.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...245NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 63.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-21 07:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 05:39:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 05:12:40 GMT
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