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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 34A
2020-09-21 01:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202352 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 63.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for another couple days. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda later tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 34
2020-09-20 22:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 542 WTNT45 KNHC 202056 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening. The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast. The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast, other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the center. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rain is also expected across sections of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 29.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-20 22:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:56:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:56:11 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2020-09-20 22:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 202054 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 24(49) X(49) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 30(65) X(65) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 21(67) X(67) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 62(63) 6(69) X(69) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 5(32) X(32) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) 9(74) X(74) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 9(40) X(40) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 54(65) 3(68) X(68) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 60(73) 1(74) X(74) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 2(44) X(44) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 33(49) X(49) X(49) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 48 30(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BERMUDA 50 5 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 22:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 29.0, -63.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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