je.st
news
Tag: ingrid
Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics
2013-09-13 17:19:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 15:02:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 15:09:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
ingrid
Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-09-13 16:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131459 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER. EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-13 16:59:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 the center of INGRID was located near 19.4, -95.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ingrid
Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 4
2013-09-13 16:59:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STRENGTHEND AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM INGRID...THE NINTH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-09-13 16:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131459 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 95.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »