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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 5

2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 95.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 95.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 132042 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 8 19 44 NA TROP DEPRESSION 7 9 11 23 32 27 NA TROPICAL STORM 90 78 66 56 41 22 NA HURRICANE 2 12 20 13 8 7 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 18 12 7 6 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 2 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 8(16) 3(19) X(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 13(30) 3(33) X(33) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 10(30) 3(33) X(33) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics

2013-09-13 19:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 17:44:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 15:09:05 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-13 19:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM INGRID NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 the center of INGRID was located near 19.4, -95.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 4A

2013-09-13 19:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131742 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM INGRID NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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