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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics
2013-09-14 11:14:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 08:55:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 09:07:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-14 10:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140856 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 22.2N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 22.4N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO 72H 17/0600Z 22.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-14 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 the center of INGRID was located near 19.8, -95.0 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 8
2013-09-14 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 95.0W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE INGRID. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES IS BASED ON DATA FROM A MEXICAN BUOY. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-09-14 10:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 140849 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 11 29 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 4 9 21 36 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 84 65 53 45 27 NA NA HURRICANE 15 31 35 24 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 15 28 31 19 6 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 3 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) 10(44) X(44) X(44) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 15(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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