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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 6
2013-09-14 01:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132352 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics
2013-09-13 23:19:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 20:44:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 21:09:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-13 22:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132043 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID DRENCHING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 the center of INGRID was located near 19.2, -95.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 5
2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...INGRID DRENCHING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 95.4W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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