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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 8

2013-09-14 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.0W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.0W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.2N 96.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.4N 97.7W...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics

2013-09-14 07:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 05:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 03:07:23 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-14 07:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID NOW DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 the center of INGRID was located near 19.7, -95.2 with movement NNE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 7A

2013-09-14 07:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140543 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID NOW DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.2W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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