je.st
news
Tag: ingrid
Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-14 04:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140257 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT. THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL... INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-14 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 the center of INGRID was located near 19.3, -95.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ingrid
Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 7
2013-09-14 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140255 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...INGRID STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 95.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT WEATHER STATION IN VERACRUZ HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH...66 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-09-14 04:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 140252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 3 9 23 51 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 4 7 20 33 25 NA TROPICAL STORM 85 67 55 44 33 14 NA HURRICANE 14 29 36 28 11 10 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 27 31 22 8 7 NA HUR CAT 2 X 2 5 5 2 2 NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 7(22) 4(26) X(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 14(44) 4(48) X(48) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 15(38) 13(51) 2(53) X(53) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 7(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-09-14 04:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140252 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 95.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »