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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091442 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to weaken shortly thereafter. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 091442 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 32(33) 16(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 1 17(18) 57(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 11(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 17.4, -110.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 110.2W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west should occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening trend should then begin by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091441 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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