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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.9W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane on Friday before weakening begins over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-09 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 437 WTPZ45 KNHC 092036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the consensus aids. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3, so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed compared to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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