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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 19.8, -115.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 17
2020-07-10 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102056 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Corrected issuance time zone to HST. ...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-07-10 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-07-10 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 605 WTPZ45 KNHC 102044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a blend of the available estimates. The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA guidance. It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a little longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-07-10 22:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102041 RRA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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