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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-10 16:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 14:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 15:31:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-10 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous official forecast. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 19.1, -114.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 114.2W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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