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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-15 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 02:31:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 02:31:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-15 04:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 the center of CRISTINA was located near 19.8, -112.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-06-15 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.8N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.0N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-14 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 20:31:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 20:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-06-14 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 Cristina's convective pattern continues to degrade, with the remaining deep convection located to the north and northeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates and data from a 1730 UTC ASCAT overpass. Moderate vertical shear and an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment should result in continued weakening to tropical depression status in about 24 hours. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate entirely by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward toward the new IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 305/05, and a general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue as the weakening cyclone is steered around the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. By day 3, the remnant low should gain a little more latitude as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is a little north of and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the aforementioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 19.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.6N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 23.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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