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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-14 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA WEAKENS WHILE IT MOVES PAST SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 the center of CRISTINA was located near 19.3, -111.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 20
2014-06-14 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 ...CRISTINA WEAKENS WHILE IT MOVES PAST SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 111.2W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. EARLY THIS MORNING...A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 87 MPH...140 KM/H...WHEN CRISTINA MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR PENINSULA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-06-14 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140838 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-06-14 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 111.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-06-14 04:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Cristina's inner core convection has become somewhat better organized and colder than six hours ago. The eye is also slightly better defined and warmer, though it was cloud-filled in last-light visible images. A 0045 UTC SSMIS overpass revealed that a new inner eyewall had developed but was partially open to the southwest. Although Dvorak CI- and Final-T numbers were a consensus 4.5/77 kt at 00z, the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt, owing to the slight increase in organization of the the cloud pattern since the last advisory. Despite the recent uptick in organization, gradual weakening is indicated by the intensity guidance during the day or two as Cristina encounters increasing southwesterly shear and moves over cooler waters. Rapid weakening is likely by 48 hours, when the cyclone reaches a hostile environment of sea surface temperatures lower than 25C, greater than 20 kt of southwesterly shear, and a substantially drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one except to show remnant low status a day sooner. The initial motion estimate is 310/06. Global models show Cristina being steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico in the short term. This feature is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days as a longwave trough becomes established over the western United States and extreme northern Mexico. This pattern should cause the forward speed of the cyclone to decrease while the the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow. The shallow vortex should turn westward by 72 hours and move little as it becomes embedded in region of weak low-level steering. Given the good model agreement, the NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and very near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.9N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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