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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-14 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 the center of CRISTINA was located near 19.7, -111.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 22
2014-06-14 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 111.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-06-14 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-14 17:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 14:35:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 15:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-06-14 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141435 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 Cristina's convective organization is degrading quickly, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of an elongating convective band. A blend of the Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT support downgrading Cristina to a 60-kt tropical storm on this advisory. Vertical shear will continue to increase during the next day or two, and Cristina will also be moving over sub-26C water in about 12-24 hours. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to continue, and the cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 36-48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast favors a fairly quick weakening rate and is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HWRF model. Cristina has slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 310/5 kt. Now that vertical shear is decoupling the system, the cyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest later today and maintain that heading through 48 hours. After that time, a break in the subtropical ridge should allow the remnant low to turn toward the north-northwest before it dissipates. This northward trend has been observed in several model cycles, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted northward on days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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