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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-14 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 the center of CRISTINA was located near 19.4, -111.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 21

2014-06-14 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 ...CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 111.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON SOCORRO ISLAND...BUT THE AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVAL WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND IS STILL REPORTING GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH...75 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2014-06-14 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 21

2014-06-14 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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