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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 18
2014-06-13 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 ...CRISTINA APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SOCORRO ISLAND. AN AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVAL WEATHER STATION ON THAT ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-13 16:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 14:34:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 14:32:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-06-13 16:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131433 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 93 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 57 23(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA SOCORRO 64 11 31(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-06-13 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131433 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 Cristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall replacement. A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by an elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images, has expanded to 25-30 n mi wide. The satellite intensity estimates are still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. Cristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient, and the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves over water colder than 26C. In addition, upper-level winds are likely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach of a sharp upper-level trough from the west. Therefore, it is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the first 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours. A mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to steer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt. This motion should continue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane or strong tropical storm. The weakening system is then expected to turn west-northwestward by 36 hours. The track guidance once again shifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new NHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-13 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 the center of CRISTINA was located near 18.0, -109.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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