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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-06-12 22:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around 1200 UTC. Deep convection has become less symmetric since that time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible images. The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT. Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also modulating the intensity. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm. After 48 hours, environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening is anticipated after that time. Given the hurricane's current structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours. The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The track models are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion through the next 48 hours. After that time, the weakening cyclone will be steered to the west by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-06-12 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122036 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 74(76) 19(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 32(32) 40(72) 3(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 9( 9) 36(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 18(34) 3(37) 1(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-12 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL CATEGORY 4... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 the center of CRISTINA was located near 16.9, -107.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 14
2014-06-12 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CRISTINA WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL CATEGORY 4... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 107.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT CRISTINA COULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-06-12 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122036 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 107.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 110SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 107.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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