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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-06-10 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Thunderstorm activity associated with Cristina has decreased in coverage and intensity since the evening diurnal convective minimum. Inner core convection has also become less organized, and banding is now less defined. A 0348 UTC ASCAT overpass showed around 30 kt winds, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB is slightly lower than six hours ago. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory, though this may be a bit generous. The initial motion estimate is a slow 275/03. The track forecast is generally straightforward. Cristina is about to move out of a weak steering environment and move westward under the influence of a building mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico at a faster forward speed. By 48 hours...the cyclone is expected to turn west- northwestward when it reaches the western end of the same mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and the GFS solution but not as far left as the ECMWF. UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output indicate light to moderate northerly shear currently over the cyclone which could be interrupting further development. However, global models show Cristina moving into a moist and generally light shear environment while moving over warm waters during the next couple of days, all of which should promote intensification to hurricane strength. In about 48 hours, the cyclone should begin to ingest a pool of drier and more stable air to the west which should bring an end to any further strengthening. An even drier and more stable environment, an increase in southwesterly shear, and marginally warm waters late in the forecast period should contribute to a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is below the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours but near the LGEM beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-10 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA NOT STRENGTHENING YET... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.6, -102.4 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 3
2014-06-10 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 ...CRISTINA NOT STRENGTHENING YET... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.4W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTERLY MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-06-10 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 10(35) 1(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-06-10 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.4W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.4W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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