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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2014-06-12 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120235 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 40(71) 10(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 9(44) 1(45) X(45) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-12 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 02:34:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 02:33:46 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2014-06-12 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-11 23:08:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 20:39:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 21:03:47 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-06-11 22:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 An intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates have steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass indicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east and that it was completely detached from any convective bands, suggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the T4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating. Therefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt. Cristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The model guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward through tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning on Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a weakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone gradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered by the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of high pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge significantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have nudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is similar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the consensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member. Intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to interrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the next 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over near 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those conditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which should combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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