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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-12 14:05:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... As of 5:30 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 the center of CRISTINA was located near 16.4, -106.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-12 11:08:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 08:40:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 09:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-06-12 10:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified during the past several hours. Convection around the center has become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one in the short term to account for the initial intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours. Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the last prediction. Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-06-12 10:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-12 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 the center of CRISTINA was located near 16.2, -106.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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