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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-11 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.6, -105.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 9

2014-06-11 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 112038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...HURRICANE CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 105.2W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 9

2014-06-11 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 112038 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.2W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.2W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 105.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2014-06-11 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 112038 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 42(59) 14(73) 1(74) X(74) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 8(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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