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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 11
2014-06-12 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. CRISTINA IS A SMALL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-06-12 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120835 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 23(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 5(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-06-12 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120236 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 Cristina continues to gain strength. The eye has become more distinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding the center have cooled. In addition, the overall cloud pattern appears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better organized banding features. Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which suggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt. The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters. In 2 to 3 days, the environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear. These hostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in about 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term to account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise unchanged. The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial motion estimate is 290/5. A slightly faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while Cristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening storm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-12 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS AND HAS 100 MPH WINDS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 the center of CRISTINA was located near 16.0, -105.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 10
2014-06-12 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS AND HAS 100 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.8W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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