je.st
news
Tag: cristina
Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-06-11 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111452 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 After an overnight period of strengthening, conventional and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Cristina's intensity has leveled off. Recent SSMI/S and TRMM overpasses indicated a low- level eye feature, but the mid-level eye is no longer evident. The cyclone again appears to have ingested dry mid-level air, which has eroded the convection in the western semicircle. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB. After a brief jog to the west-southwest, Cristina appears to have resumed a westerly motion of 275/05 kt. Other than to make just a tad right-of-track adjustment due to the initial position, the NHC official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track. Cristina is expected to move westward today, followed by a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge in the 24- to 72-hour period, a scenario which most of the reliable models strongly agree on. After that, however, the models diverge significantly with the GFS, GFS Ensemble, NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFDL models taking a stronger Cristina more northward, whereas the ECMWF and UKMET weaken the cyclone fairly quickly and move it more westward. Given that the official intensity forecast is calling for a weaker and smaller tropical cyclone by 96 and 120 hours, the official forecast at those times is roughly an average of the ECMWF and GFS models, which shows a weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone moving west-northward to westward. Cristina has consistently been intensifying at night during the convective maximum period, which seems likely to continue for another 24-48 hours. However, the cyclone will still be battling occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air for the remainder of the forecast period, especially after 72 hours, so only gradual intensification is expected. After day 3, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and SSTs cooler than 26C are expected to induce steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.4N 104.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-06-11 16:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 111452 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 35(42) 24(66) 1(67) 1(68) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 1(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 1(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-11 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.4, -104.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
cristina
ep3ep032014
Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 8
2014-06-11 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 104.8W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-06-11 16:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 111447 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] next »