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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-06-11 10:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110844 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 Cristina continues to intensify. The cyclone consists of a small central dense overcast in geostationary satellite imagery with cold-topped convection to -80C in the northern semicircle. There have been faint hints of eye or warm spot during the past several hours, and a 0329 UTC TRMM overpass showed a closed low- to mid- level ring of convection surrounding the center. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 60 kt at synoptic time. However, the initial intensity estimate is increased to 65 kt, based on UW-CIMSS ADT values now to 4.5/77 kt and the persistence of an eye feature that has warmed slightly and become better defined. The cyclone has been moving south of due west in response to a strong mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, but the heading appears to have recently become more westerly. The ridge is forecast to either remain in place or shift slightly eastward during the next few days, which should cause the track of Cristina to gradually bend west-northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, but small differences in the location of the ridge over Mexico lead to slightly different motion headings. The ECMWF maintains the center of the ridge a bit to the west of the GFS and other models, resulting in a solution on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a hair to the left of the previous one in the direction of the ECMWF, which has continued to correctly forecast a more southern track. The environment in which Cristina is embedded remains ideal for intensification. The cyclone is located underneath a mid- to upper- level ridge axis and over very warm waters. The inner core structure has also become better defined, with the closed ring seen in microwave imagery signaling that rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC forecast is adjusted upward in the short term based on current trends, and thee is some potential for Cristina to become stronger than forecast. In about 60 hours, Cristina should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough extending southwestward from California coast and should reach markedly cooler waters in about 4 days. This should result in a pronounced weakening trend at the end of the forecast period and perhaps a quick demise. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and near the LGEM after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.2N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-11 10:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 08:32:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 08:32:46 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-06-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110833 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 39(63) 4(67) X(67) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 2(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 2(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-11 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.2, -104.1 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 7
2014-06-11 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 104.1W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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