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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-10 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.5, -103.2 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 5

2014-06-10 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 103.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTERLY MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-06-10 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 102035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2014-06-10 18:30:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101630 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 30(34) 9(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-10 17:07:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 14:44:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 15:03:43 GMT

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