je.st
news
Tag: cristina
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 6
2014-06-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 103.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-06-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 45(64) 4(68) 1(69) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 4(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-10 23:08:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 20:36:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 21:03:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
cristina
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-06-10 22:44:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102044 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Although inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times since the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a central dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level air. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible imagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud pattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having said that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been hinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature during the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been unable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned dry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected to continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing influence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48 hours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to continue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the consensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp right-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast. Upper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during the next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C. This should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for the next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions that will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification process. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an eye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in such a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the combination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more stable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-06-10 22:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 102042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 40(49) 8(57) X(57) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 2(25) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] next »