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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-02 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021438 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of a large mass of deep convection. Arc clouds are also noted to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of the presence of some dry air at mid levels. Based on observations from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity. Since the system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear, some additional strengthening is certainly possible before landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico. The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed through 36 hours. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue even after the center moves inland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 23.4N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics
2014-09-02 16:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:33:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:32:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
2014-09-02 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 23.4, -96.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 4
2014-09-02 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 96.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-09-02 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 021432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 6 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LA PESCO MX 34 19 32(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) LA PESCO MX 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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