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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-09-03 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030855 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of central Mexico. The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it dissipates. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
2014-09-03 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 the center of DOLLY was located near 21.8, -98.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 7
2014-09-03 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 98.4W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DOLLY MOVES INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY OVER THE WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-09-03 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 030854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 32 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-09-03 10:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030853 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 98.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 98.4W AT 03/0900Z...INLAND AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 98.0W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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