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Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-09-02 22:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 022044 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 45 14(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) TAMPICO MX 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 26 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-09-02 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022043 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics
2014-09-02 21:30:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 17:59:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 19:28:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
2014-09-02 19:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.0, -96.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 4A
2014-09-02 19:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021755 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 96.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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