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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 5A
2014-09-03 01:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 700 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...DOLLY NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 97.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics
2014-09-02 23:09:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 20:44:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 21:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-02 22:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022045 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the least, challenging. Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track and nearer to the middle of the deep convection. Flight-level and SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt. Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours, no significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Once inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than indicated by the NHC forecast. With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt. Despite the complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern remains roughly the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally westward direction over the next day or two. The official track forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation. This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue even after the center moves inland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
2014-09-02 22:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.0, -97.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 5
2014-09-02 22:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022044 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 97.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
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