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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-08-27 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 270853 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 Recent microwave data indicate that Gaston's center is now well embedded near the middle of the central dense overcast. The microwave images also show that a partial mid-level ring has formed, but it remains open to the north-northeast. Even though Gaston's structure appears to be improving, the maximum winds remain 55 kt based on Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Two outflow jets are emanating away to the east and southwest of Gaston, but the outflow remains restricted to the south and northwest. Still, the shear has decreased substantially from what it was a day or two ago, and it should remain generally low for the next 48 hours. In addition, sea surface temperatures ahead of Gaston are expected to be at least 28C for several more days. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated through day 3, followed by gradual weakening on days 4 and 5 due to increasing westerly shear. Although the intensity models all agree on this general scenario, there is a little more spread in the peak intensities than has been noted in previous advisories. On the high end, the Florida State Superensemble still shows Gaston approaching major hurricane intensity, while the LGEM model is at the other extreme being about 20 kt lower. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance and ends up just a little lower than the previous forecast. Gaston is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13 kt, between a mid-tropospheric high to its northeast and a mid-/upper-level low to its southwest. The cyclone is expected to maintain a northwestward heading but steadily decelerate during the next 48 hours. After that time, Gaston should recurve sharply east-northeastward and accelerate through the end of the forecast period as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has trended westward through 48 hours, delaying Gaston's recurvature just a bit, and it is then a little faster by days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 27.9N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 53.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 29.9N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 30.6N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 31.2N 56.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 32.5N 55.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 34.5N 50.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 37.0N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-08-27 10:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 270852 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-27 10:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 27 the center of GASTON was located near 27.9, -52.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 19
2016-08-27 10:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 270852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 ...GASTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 52.0W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 52.0 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-08-27 10:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270852 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 52.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 52.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 53.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.2N 56.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.5N 55.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 34.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 37.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 52.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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