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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-27 04:53:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 02:52:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 02:52:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-08-27 04:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 270252 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 The structure of Gaston appears to be slowly improving, with less evidence of vertical shear than earlier today. Deep convection has been forming fairly close to the center in a more symmetric fashion, but still hasn't been able to persist for very long. Subjective estimates are a little higher than earlier, but still support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Gaston should move into a low-shear, warm-water environment during the next 2 or 3 days, which would usually support a great deal of strengthening. However, a key hindering factor remains the nearby low-level moisture, which is forecast to substantially decrease during the next few days. This should temper the expected intensification and reduce the chances for rapid strengthening. Gaston is likely to encounter increasing upper-level flow beyond 3 days, which probably will start a weakening trend in combination with gradually cooling SSTs. Model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, with less spread in the intensity models than is typically seen. The new prediction is a blend of the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Microwave data suggest that Gaston continues to move northwestward, now at about 13 kt, a bit slower than before. The cyclone is moving between a strong upper low to the southwest and a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken, resulting in Gaston decelerating over the next couple of days. Steering currents get quite light in about 3 days, and the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward or east-northeastward it moves around the northwest side of a distant ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Computer models are coming into better agreement on a sharper, slower recurvature, first suggested by the ECMWF yesterday. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one for the first few days, then is trended eastward to follow the model trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 27.0N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.0N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 29.2N 54.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 30.2N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 30.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 33.0N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 35.0N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-27 04:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 26 the center of GASTON was located near 27.0, -50.8 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 18
2016-08-27 04:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 270251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 ...GASTON FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 50.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 50.8 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and the cyclone should continue in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane again on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2016-08-27 04:51:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 270251 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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