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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-08-26 16:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 261455 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 48.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 48.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.7N 50.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.9N 55.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.2N 56.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 32.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 34.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-08-26 16:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 261455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-26 11:25:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 09:25:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 09:05:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-08-26 10:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260851 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 Gaston is right in the thick of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear, and the low-level center appears to be near or just inside the southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. Because Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 3.5, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. With Gaston now moving around the northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, the vertical shear is expected to quickly decrease to below 10 kt within the next 12-24 hours. In addition, sea surface temperatures are forecast to increase by another degree or two. Therefore, Gaston is likely to begin strengthening later today, and it should reintensify to a hurricane by tonight or on Saturday. Strengthening is anticipated to continue through days 3 and 4, with Gaston nearing or possibly reaching major hurricane intensity, followed by some weakening on day 5 due to an increase in westerly shear. The reliable intensity models are all within 10-15 kt of each other for the entire forecast period, and the NHC forecast is therefore very close to the ICON intensity consensus. Gaston continues to move northwestward, or 320 degrees at 15 kt. The cyclone is expected to maintain a generally northwestward track but slow down considerably during the next few days after it moves north of the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low and enters a break in the subtropical ridge. After 72 hours, Gaston is expected to reach the mid-latitude westerlies, and a sharp recurvature with acceleration is forecast at the end of the forecast period. While all the track models agree on this scenario, there continue to be differences in the sharpness of Gaston's turn and its forward speed, especially after the turn. Still, the updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it is closest to a clustering of models that includes the GFS, the Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 23.9N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 27.0N 52.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 28.2N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 29.2N 55.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 30.8N 57.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 32.2N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 34.0N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-26 10:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 26 the center of GASTON was located near 23.9, -47.6 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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