je.st
news
Tag: gaston
Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 18
2016-08-27 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270251 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 50.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.2N 55.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 33.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-26 23:11:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 20:32:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 21:06:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
gaston
Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-26 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 262032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016 The hostile vertical shear from an upper low to Gaston's southwest appears to be dropping with the SHIPS and CIMSS shear analyses down to about 15 kt. The deep convection, however, is still mainly north of the center and lacks significant banding features. SAB and TAFB Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, down slightly from earlier today. In deference to the 1330Z ASCAT scatterometer pass and the very robust low-level circulation evident in the visible imagery during the day, the maximum winds are kept at 55 kt. As Gaston moves away from the upper-level low, the shear should continue to drop to values between 5 and 10 kt by tomorrow. The shear should then stay low through about 72 h while the cyclone traverses over quite warm waters. A key uncertainty in the intensity forecast is from the environmental low-level moisture, which may decrease substantially during the next few days. This could reduce the otherwise quite conducive conditions that Gaston should soon experience. After about three days, Gaston is likely to encounter strong mid-latitude upper-level westerlies and a return of hostile shear while SSTs steadily drop. The official NHC forecast is for steady intensification between days one and three, with gradual weakening thereafter. This forecast is based upon a blend of the tightly packed HWRF/COAMPS/SHIPS/LGEM models and is the same as in the previous advisory. Gaston's center is just tucked in on the southern edge of the deep convection, allowing for a confident assessment of the initial position. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at a 15-kt clip, as it is being steered between the strong upper low and a subtropical ridge to its northeast. Around 72 h, Gaston should slow to a crawl as it reaches a weak steering pattern. But by the end of the forecast period, the system should be accelerating northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track forecast is based upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models and is nearly the same from that in the previous advisory. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii were only slightly tweaked based upon the ASCAT scatterometer pass and the wind radii forecast is similar to the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 26.2N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 27.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 28.6N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 29.7N 54.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 30.4N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 31.5N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 49.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2016-08-26 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 262031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-26 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 26 the center of GASTON was located near 26.2, -49.7 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
gaston
Sites : [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] next »