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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-28 05:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.6, -65.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Update Statement
2015-08-28 05:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT65 KNHC 280352 TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 The Government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 05:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:50:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:06:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-08-28 05:04:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280304 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36 and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of land for this to occur. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 13
2015-08-28 05:03:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280303 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 65.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Central Bahamas Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 65.3 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is anticipated on Friday, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several hours and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the Virgin Islands and will spread across Puerto Rico during the next several hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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