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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2018-05-10 23:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 May 2018 21:31:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 May 2018 21:55:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5 knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a weak subtropical ridge is anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012018)
2018-05-10 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A DAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu May 10 the center of One-E was located near 12.4, -126.5 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A DAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 126.5W ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 126.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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