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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-05-11 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center even though it is encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing the cyclone to even stronger shear. Based on this, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less than 24 h. One small change from the previous forecast is to keep the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the dynamical model guidance. The initial motion is 295/8. Through its lifetime, the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012018)
2018-05-11 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu May 10 the center of One-E was located near 12.7, -127.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-05-11 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 127.4W ABOUT 1345 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 127.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and a gradual decrease in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is moving through an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and it is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-05-11 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-05-11 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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