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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-29 23:01:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:52:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:50:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-29 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292057 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving over very waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4 kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution. In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-29 22:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 24.0, -84.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 5
2016-08-29 22:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 292056 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 CORRECTED HEADLINE ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 84.8W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday night followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from western Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday. The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 12 inches are possible over western Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible along the west coast of Florida from Naples to Steinhatchee. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-08-29 22:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 292053 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 1(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) 1(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) X(31) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 11(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 9(35) X(35) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) X(25) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) X(21) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) 3(29) X(29) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 24(31) 5(36) X(36) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 7(43) X(43) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) X(27) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 7(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 3(36) X(36) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 29(44) 3(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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